WASHINGTON - The Bush administration has
set itself on a ''path toward war'' against Iraq with Vice President
Dick Cheney's forceful speech on Monday, accelerating the campaign to
win over allies to oust Saddam Hussein, conservative and liberal
analysts agreed yesterday.
''The debate is over,'' said William Kristol, editor of the Weekly
Standard and a former senior official in the first Bush presidency whose
views are influential with members of the current administration. ''It
marks a transition from an administration weighing what to do to an
administration beginning to make its case at home and abroad over the
next two or three weeks in favor of an attack.''

An Iraqi child leans on a door which was hit by shrapnel which
residents said was from a bomb which fell nearby during the 1998 U.S
and British raids on Iraq, August 27, 2002. Iraq is facing a
mounting U.S. threat of military action to oust the Baghdad
government, accused by Washington of developing weapons of mass
destruction. REUETERS/Faleh Kheiber
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Cheney, who delivered the address Monday to the 103d National
Convention of Veterans of Foreign Wars with little advance fanfare,
called Iraq a mortal threat and said that Iraq was systematically
building up offensive weapons of mass destruction ''for the purpose of
inflicting death on a massive scale.''
Former congressman Lee Hamilton of Indiana, a Democrat and former
chairman of the House International Relations Committee, said Cheney's
speech ''sets us on a path toward war. It will be very difficult now for
the administration to back down from Cheney's speech. It will no longer
be a question of whether or not we go to war,'' but when.
But Richard Boucher, the State Department spokesman, said yesterday
that US diplomats were not yet trying to garner support around the world
for an attack against Iraq because the Bush administration has not made
any decisions.
''The president has not decided,'' Boucher said. ''So there's no
option to enlist people's support for. There's no war drums to beat.
There is no particular course of action that we're trying to sell right
now.''
But many conservative and liberal observers said that Cheney's speech
signaled a major defeat for more moderate voices in the State
Department, including Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, who has
remained largely quiet publicly on the issue over the past several
weeks.
The president has called for Hussein to be toppled. Iraq has refused
to allow UN weapons inspectors to return to the country, and the
administration has accused Iraq of rebuilding chemical, nuclear, and
biological weapons and of supporting terrorism.
The administration's tough talk against Hussein and Iraq has caused
concern among Arab allies who oppose an attack.
Yesterday, Bush hosted Saudi Ambassador Prince Bandar bin Sultan and
his family in a gesture analysts said was intended to project strong
US-Saudi ties.
The relationship has become strained in recent months over
disagreements on the Middle East peace process. Saudi officials have
said they will not allow US planes to use their air bases to launch an
attack on Iraq.
Bush pledged to consult with Saudi Arabia and other countries as he
approaches a decision on whether to attack Iraq.
''On the topic of Iraq, the president stressed that he has made no
decisions, that he will continue to engage in consultations with Saudi
Arabia and other nations about steps in the Middle East, steps in
Iraq,'' said White House spokesman Ari Fleischer.
Fleischer added that the president ''made very clear again that he
believes that Saddam Hussein is a menace to world peace, a menace to
regional peace, and that the world and the region will be safer and
better off without Saddam Hussein.''
Kristol, along with other conservative Republicans, said yesterday
that Cheney's speech ''greatly accelerates'' the timetable for debate in
Congress on the issue as well as the possible start of a war. He and
others also said it appeared to signal the ascendancy inside the
administration of several hawks who have pushed for an attack against
Iraq. Those include two leaders at the Pentagon, Deputy Defense
Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and Douglas Feith, the undersecretary of
defense for policy.
''As a follow-up to Cheney's speech, there will be the events on
Sept. 11, and the president's remarks that day,'' Kristol said. ''While
he will talk about the remembrance of those who died, I think he also
will give a sense that we are in a long war with much more to be done,
that it will require sacrifice in the future. Then, on Sept. 12, Bush
speaks to the UN General Assembly, and it will be an obvious time to
make the case for foreign governments.''
Cheney probably intended the speech as a way to gauge reaction for a
military strike prior to Bush tackling the subject publicly, said a
State Department official who requested anonymity. Cheney said arguments
against a preemptive attack were misguided and said if the world waited
until there was proof that Hussein possessed nuclear weapons, it would
have waited too long. But the vice president presented no new evidence
that Iraq has been tied to recent terror attacks, including Sept. 11, or
that Iraq was planning any attacks.
Hamilton, an appointed member of the president's Homeland Advisory
Council, said he saw no other options ahead but a plan for a military
attack. ''You simply cannot back down from this kind of speech. This
lays it out. If Bush runs for office in 2004, and has not brought down
the regime,'' he will have trouble in his campaign, Hamilton said.
''This speech comes very close to a declaration of war.''
Jay C. Farrar, a former senior defense official and now an analyst at
the centrist think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies,
agreed. ''This is the opening public salvo of the administration saying
we are going to go, although I don't think they are going to go in a
month. I think it's still a few months off,'' Farrar said.
But he said that Cheney's speech now presents thorny problems for
Powell, especially if the secretary of state tries to counter with
administration hawks on how to proceed.
''It's making his job extremely difficult because he's the poor guy
trying to hold things together on the front line'' of diplomacy, Farrar
said. ''It doesn't help when all these folks espousing this policy, like
Richard Perle and Kristol and others, do not have official standing in
the administration and yet carry more influence than he does.'' Perle is
chairman of the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board.
For conservatives outside the administration, Cheney's speech was
extraordinarily well received - with one caveat: They wish he had made
the speech months ago.
''We declared almost a year ago that we would punish Iraq after Sept.
11,'' said Meyraw Wurmser, director of the Center for Middle East Policy
at the Hudson Institute. ''If the Iraqis have been involved in Sept. 11,
and the administration claims that is the case, they should have been
punished before now.''
© Copyright 2002 Globe Newspaper Company
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