How the Poll Results on Iraq Were
Manipulated
James Zogby
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WASHINGTON, 22 October 2003 ( Arab News ) Early in President Bush’s recent
public relations campaign to rebuild support for the US war effort in Iraq,
Vice President Cheney appeared on “Meet the Press.” Attempting to make the
case that the US was winning in Iraq, Cheney made the following
observations:
“There was a poll done, just random in the last week, first one I’ve seen
carefully done; admittedly, it’s a difficult area to poll in. Zogby
International did it with American Enterprise magazine. But that’s got very
positive news in it in terms of the numbers it shows with respect to the
attitudes to what Americans have done.
“One of the questions it asked is: ‘If you could have any model for the kind
of government you’d like to have’ — and they were given five choices —
‘which would it be?’ The US wins hands down. If you want to ask them do they
want an Islamic government established, by 2:1 margins they say no,
including the Shiite population. If you ask how long they want Americans to
stay, over 60 percent of the people polled said they want the US to stay for
at least another year. So admittedly there are problems, especially in that
area where Saddam Hussein was from, where people have benefited most from
his regime and who’ve got the most to lose if we’re successful in our
enterprise, and continuing attacks from terror. But to suggest somehow that
that’s representative of the country at large or the Iraqi people are
opposed to what we’ve done in Iraq or are actively and aggressively trying
to undermine it, I just think that’s not true.”
In fact, Zogby International (ZI) in Iraq had conducted the poll, and the
American Enterprise Institute (AEI) did publish their interpretation of the
findings. But the AEI’s “spin” and the vice president’s use of their “spin”
created a faulty impression of the poll’s results and, therefore, of the
attitudes of the Iraqi people.
For example, while Cheney noted that when asked what kind of government they
would like, Iraqis chose “the US... hands down,” in fact, the results of the
poll are actually quite different. Twenty-three percent of Iraqis say that
they would like to model their new government after the US; 17.5 percent
would like their model to be Saudi Arabia; 12 percent say Syria, 7 percent
say Egypt and 37 percent say “none of the above.” That’s hardly “winning
hands down.”
When given the choice as to whether they “would like to see the American and
British forces leave Iraq in six months, one year, or two years,” 31.5
percent of Iraqis say these forces should leave in six months; 34 percent
say a year, and only 25 percent say two or more years.
So while technically Cheney might say that “over 60 percent (actually it’s
59 percent) ... want the US to stay at least another year,” an equally
correct observation would be that 65.5 percent want the US and Britain to
leave in one year or less.
Other numbers found in the poll go further to dampen the vice president’s
and the AEI’s rosy interpretations. For example, when asked if “democracy
can work well in Iraq,” 51 percent said “no; it is a Western way of doing
things and will not work here.”
And attitudes toward the US were not positive. When asked whether over the
next five years, they felt that the “US would help or hurt Iraq,” 50 percent
said that the US would hurt Iraq, while only 35.5 percent felt the US would
help the country. On the other hand, 61 percent of Iraqis felt that Saudi
Arabia would help Iraq in the next five years, as opposed to only 7.5
percent, who felt Saudi Arabia would hurt their country. Some 50.5 percent
felt that the United Nations would help Iraq, while 18.5 percent felt it
would hurt. Iran’s rating was very close to the US’, with 53.5 percent of
Iraqis saying Iran would hurt them in the next five years, while only 21.5
percent felt that Iran might help them.
It is disturbing that the AEI and the vice president could get it so wrong.
Their misuse of the polling numbers to make the point that they wanted to
make, resembles the way critics have noted that the administration used
“intelligence data” to make their case to justify the war.
The danger, of course, is that painting a rosy picture that doesn’t exist is
a recipe for a failed policy. Wishing something to be can’t make it so. At
some point, reality intervenes. It’s a hard lesson to learn, but it is
dangerous to ignore its importance.
For the administration to continue to tell itself and the American people
that “all is well,” only means that needed changes in policy will not be
made.
Consider some of the other poll findings:
• Over 55 percent give a negative rating to “how the US military is dealing
with Iraqi civilians.” Only 20 percent gave the US military a positive
rating.
• By a margin of 57 percent to 38.5 percent, Iraqis indicate that they would
support “Arab forces” providing security in their country.
• When asked how they would describe the attacks on the US military, 49
percent described them as “resistance operations.” Only 29 percent saw them
as attacks by “Baath loyalists.”
• When asked whom they preferred to “provide security and restore order in
their country,” only 6.5 percent said the US. Twenty-seven percent said the
US and the UN together, 14.5 percent preferred only the UN. And the largest
group, 45 percent, said they would prefer the “Iraqi military” to do the job
alone.
There are important lessons in all of this. Lessons policy makers ought to
heed if they are to help Iraq move forward. What the Iraqi people appear to
be telling us is that they have hope for the future, but they want the help
of their neighbors more than that of the US.
That may not be what Washington wants to hear, but it ought to listen
nevertheless. Because if policy makers continue to bend the data to meet
their desired policy, then this hole they are digging will only get deeper.
Copyright: Arab News.